Changchun Yatai 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns

Changchun Yatai

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wuhan Three Towns

4/2/2025

Super League · Round 4Development Area Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Changchun Yatai38%

×Draw25%

Wuhan Three Towns37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changchun YataiExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.42

Changchun Yatai

1.46

Wuhan Three Towns

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 72 away

1.44

creates per match

1.50

1.33

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Changchun Yatai

1.44

Wuhan Three Towns

1.50

allows per match

Changchun Yatai

1.33

Wuhan Three Towns

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw

63%

Changchun Yatai or Wuhan Three Towns

75%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

62%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+

18%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals

77%

Changchun Yatai 2+ goals

43%

Changchun Yatai 3+ goals

18%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

76%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

41%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)

51%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 88 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.44 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.50 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more

38%

level

25%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

37%

Changchun Yatai at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff