Wuhan Three Towns 4–4 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.39

Wuhan Three Towns

1.71

Beijing Guoan

1.39

Wuhan Three Towns creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

1.91

creates per match

1.54

1.23

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.91

Beijing Guoan

1.54

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.23

Beijing Guoan

1.52

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns-0.38scores less

Beijing Guoan+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

69%

Wuhan Three Towns or Beijing Guoan

76%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

55%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

24%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

82%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

51%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

24%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

75%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

40%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

59%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.23 · 15 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.91 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.71

Beijing Guoan attack 1.54 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

45%

level

24%

Beijing Guoan scores more

31%

Wuhan Three Towns at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Guga

Beijing Guoan · M

9.0

Match Events

3'

F. Abreu↳ Guga

23'

Zhang Yuning↳ F. Abreu

31'

M. Palacios↳ Zheng Haoqian

34'

Serginho↳ Guga

42'

46'

56'

57'

57'

Yang Liyu← Zhang Yuning

69'

Yang Liyu↳ F. Abreu

71'

Yongjing Cao

74'

Zhang Xizhe← Serginho

75'

Liao Chengjian

76'

Zhong Jinbao← Wang Jinxian

81'

Liu Yiming← Hang Ren

82'

Long Wei← Liao Chengjian

82'

Zhang Zhenyang← M. Palacios

88'

Zhong Jinbao↳ Gustavo Sauer

90+7'

Gang Wang

90'

Gustavo SauerPenalty

90'

Zhang Zhenyang↳ Gustavo Sauer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WuhanBeijing

Overview

34%Possession66%

18Total Shots13

2.97Expected Goals (xG)2.83

8Corners7

16Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots13

10On Target7

6Off Target2

2Blocked4

10Inside Box12

8Outside Box1

Passing

34%Possession66%

327Total Passes675

263Accurate Passes603

80%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Super League: Wuhan Three Towns 4–4 Beijing Guoan

Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan drew 4-4 in Super League on April 15, 2025.

Goals: F. Abreu (3'), Zhang Yuning (23'), M. Palacios (31'), Serginho (34'), Yang Liyu (69'), Zhong Jinbao (88'), Gustavo Sauer (90' pen), Zhang Zhenyang (90').

Beijing Guoan controlled possession (66%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Centre in Wuhan.

Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super League: Wuhan Three Towns 4–4 Beijing Guoan