Beijing Guoan 4–0 Wuhan Three Towns: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Wuhan Three Towns

Zhang Yuning 61'

Lin Liangming 53'

Serginho 45'

F. Abreu 32' (pen)

8/25/2025

Super League · Round 22Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Beijing Guoan57%

×Draw22%

Wuhan Three Towns22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.16

Beijing Guoan

2.00

Wuhan Three Towns

1.16

Beijing Guoan creates 72% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 21 away

2.08

creates per match

1.08

1.23

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.08

Wuhan Three Towns

1.08

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.23

Wuhan Three Towns

1.92

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.20scores more

Wuhan Three Towns-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

78%

Beijing Guoan or Wuhan Three Towns

78%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

43%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

34%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

86%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

59%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

32%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

69%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

32%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

72%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.23 · 29 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.08 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.00

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.08 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

57%

level

22%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

22%

Beijing Guoan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Lin Liangming

Beijing Guoan · D

9.0

Match Events

-5'

Park Ji-soo

29'

Yuning ZhangPenalty confirmed

32'

F. AbreuPenalty

45'

Serginho↳ Cao Yongjing

46'

Wang Kang← Chen Zhechao

53'

Lin Liangming↳ Guga

59'

Yiming Liu

61'

Wang Denny← Deng Hanwen

61'

Zhang Yuning↳ Lin Liangming

62'

Hang Ren← Liu Yiming

62'

Wang Jinxian← Zheng Haoqian

64'

N. Muhmet← Lin Liangming

65'

Fang Hao← Zhang Yuning

68'

Darlan← Zheng Kaimu

71'

Nebijan Muhmet

71'

Li Ruiyue← Serginho

71'

Zhang Xizhe← F. Abreu

77'

83'

85'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeijingWuhan

Overview

74%Possession26%

22Total Shots4

2.52Expected Goals (xG)0.63

5Corners1

15Fouls15

Shots

22Total Shots4

7On Target2

8Off Target2

7Blocked0

12Inside Box2

10Outside Box2

Passing

74%Possession26%

615Total Passes212

538Accurate Passes156

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides7