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Wuhan Three Towns II vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Wuhan Three Towns II
Wuhan Three Towns II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
3/29/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Wuhan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns II46%
×Draw30%
Quanzhou Yassin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns II
1.22
Quanzhou Yassin
0.79

Wuhan Three Towns II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 47 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns II
0.64
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns II
0.82
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns II+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns II ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns II or draw
76%
Wuhan Three Towns II or Quanzhou Yassin
70%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
54%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns II wins by 2+
21%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns II 1+ goals
70%
Wuhan Three Towns II 2+ goals
34%
Wuhan Three Towns II 3+ goals
12%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
55%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
19%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns II (draw refunded)
66%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns II at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns II attack 0.64 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.22

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Wuhan Three Towns II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wuhan Three Towns II scores more
46%
level
30%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
24%

Wuhan Three Towns II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Three Towns II vs Quanzhou Yassin

Wuhan Three Towns II and Quanzhou Yassin drew 1-1 in League Two on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Centre in Wuhan.