Quanzhou Yassin 0–1 Wuhan Three Towns II

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wuhan Three Towns II

6/8/2025

League Two · Round 13Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin31%

×Draw29%

Wuhan Three Towns II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.19

Quanzhou Yassin

1.00

Wuhan Three Towns II

1.19

Wuhan Three Towns II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 23 away

0.88

creates per match

1.00

1.38

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

Wuhan Three Towns II

1.00

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

Wuhan Three Towns II

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Wuhan Three Towns II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Wuhan Three Towns II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

60%

Quanzhou Yassin or Wuhan Three Towns II

71%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns II

69%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

11%

Wuhan Three Towns II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

63%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

26%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

8%

Wuhan Three Towns II 1+ goals

70%

Wuhan Three Towns II 2+ goals

33%

Wuhan Three Towns II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

43%

Wuhan Three Towns II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Wuhan Three Towns II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Wuhan Three Towns II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Wuhan Three Towns II attack 1.00 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

31%

level

29%

Wuhan Three Towns II scores more

40%

Wuhan Three Towns II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff