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Wuhan Three Towns II vs Hainan Star — League Two 2022

Wuhan Three Towns II
Wuhan Three Towns II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hainan Star
Hainan Star
7/19/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Wuhan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns II45%
×Draw29%
Hainan Star26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns II
1.23
Hainan Star
0.85

Wuhan Three Towns II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 48 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns II
0.64
Hainan Star
0.88

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns II
0.82
Hainan Star
1.81

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns II+0.00on par
Hainan Star+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns II ↓

Hainan Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns II or draw
74%
Wuhan Three Towns II or Hainan Star
71%
Draw or Hainan Star
55%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns II wins by 2+
20%
Hainan Star wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns II 1+ goals
71%
Wuhan Three Towns II 2+ goals
35%
Wuhan Three Towns II 3+ goals
13%
Hainan Star 1+ goals
57%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
21%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns II (draw refunded)
64%
Hainan Star (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns II at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

Hainan Star away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns II attack 0.64 + Hainan Star defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hainan Star attack 0.88 + Wuhan Three Towns II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wuhan Three Towns II scores more
45%
level
29%
Hainan Star scores more
26%

Wuhan Three Towns II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Three Towns II vs Hainan Star

Wuhan Three Towns II beat Hainan Star 1-0 in League Two on July 19, 2025.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Centre in Wuhan.