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Hainan Star vs Wuhan Three Towns II — League Two 2022

Hainan Star
Hainan Star
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wuhan Three Towns II
Wuhan Three Towns II
5/10/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Yunnan Kehua Football Training Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hainan Star35%
×Draw29%
Wuhan Three Towns II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hainan Star
1.12
Wuhan Three Towns II
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hainan Star
1.11
Wuhan Three Towns II
1.00

allows per match

Hainan Star
1.28
Wuhan Three Towns II
1.13

finishing

Hainan Star+0.00on par
Wuhan Three Towns II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hainan Star ↓

Wuhan Three Towns II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hainan Star or draw
64%
Hainan Star or Wuhan Three Towns II
71%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns II
65%

Winning margin

Hainan Star wins by 2+
14%
Wuhan Three Towns II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hainan Star 1+ goals
67%
Hainan Star 2+ goals
31%
Hainan Star 3+ goals
10%
Wuhan Three Towns II 1+ goals
68%
Wuhan Three Towns II 2+ goals
32%
Wuhan Three Towns II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hainan Star (draw refunded)
49%
Wuhan Three Towns II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hainan Star at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Wuhan Three Towns II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hainan Star attack 1.11 + Wuhan Three Towns II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Wuhan Three Towns II attack 1.00 + Hainan Star defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hainan Star scores more
35%
level
29%
Wuhan Three Towns II scores more
36%

Wuhan Three Towns II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hainan Star vs Wuhan Three Towns II

Wuhan Three Towns II beat Hainan Star 2-1 in League Two on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Yunnan Kehua Football Training Base Stadium in Kunming.