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Wuhan Three Towns II vs Chengdu Rongcheng II — League Two 2022

Wuhan Three Towns II
Wuhan Three Towns II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chengdu Rongcheng II
Chengdu Rongcheng II
4/15/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Wuhan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns II31%
×Draw32%
Chengdu Rongcheng II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns II
0.86
Chengdu Rongcheng II
0.97

Chengdu Rongcheng II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns II
0.64
Chengdu Rongcheng II
1.13

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns II
0.82
Chengdu Rongcheng II
1.09

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns II+0.00on par
Chengdu Rongcheng II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns II ↓

Chengdu Rongcheng II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns II or draw
63%
Wuhan Three Towns II or Chengdu Rongcheng II
68%
Draw or Chengdu Rongcheng II
69%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns II wins by 2+
10%
Chengdu Rongcheng II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns II 1+ goals
58%
Wuhan Three Towns II 2+ goals
21%
Wuhan Three Towns II 3+ goals
6%
Chengdu Rongcheng II 1+ goals
62%
Chengdu Rongcheng II 2+ goals
25%
Chengdu Rongcheng II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns II (draw refunded)
46%
Chengdu Rongcheng II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns II at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

Chengdu Rongcheng II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns II attack 0.64 + Chengdu Rongcheng II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.86

Chengdu Rongcheng II attack 1.13 + Wuhan Three Towns II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wuhan Three Towns II scores more
31%
level
32%
Chengdu Rongcheng II scores more
37%

Chengdu Rongcheng II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chengdu Rongcheng II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Three Towns II vs Chengdu Rongcheng II

Chengdu Rongcheng II beat Wuhan Three Towns II 1-0 in League Two on April 15, 2026.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Centre in Wuhan.