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Chengdu Rongcheng II vs Wuhan Three Towns II — League Two 2022

Chengdu Rongcheng II
Chengdu Rongcheng II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wuhan Three Towns II
Wuhan Three Towns II
4/4/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Chengdu Rongcheng II44%
×Draw29%
Wuhan Three Towns II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Rongcheng II
1.26
Wuhan Three Towns II
0.94

Chengdu Rongcheng II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Chengdu Rongcheng II
1.39
Wuhan Three Towns II
1.00

allows per match

Chengdu Rongcheng II
0.87
Wuhan Three Towns II
1.13

finishing

Chengdu Rongcheng II+0.00on par
Wuhan Three Towns II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Rongcheng II ↓

Wuhan Three Towns II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chengdu Rongcheng II or draw
72%
Chengdu Rongcheng II or Wuhan Three Towns II
71%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns II
56%

Winning margin

Chengdu Rongcheng II wins by 2+
20%
Wuhan Three Towns II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chengdu Rongcheng II 1+ goals
72%
Chengdu Rongcheng II 2+ goals
36%
Chengdu Rongcheng II 3+ goals
13%
Wuhan Three Towns II 1+ goals
61%
Wuhan Three Towns II 2+ goals
24%
Wuhan Three Towns II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Rongcheng II (draw refunded)
61%
Wuhan Three Towns II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Rongcheng II at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Wuhan Three Towns II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Rongcheng II attack 1.39 + Wuhan Three Towns II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Wuhan Three Towns II attack 1.00 + Chengdu Rongcheng II defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chengdu Rongcheng II scores more
44%
level
29%
Wuhan Three Towns II scores more
28%

Chengdu Rongcheng II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chengdu Rongcheng II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Chengdu Rongcheng II 0–0 Wuhan Three Towns II

Chengdu Rongcheng II and Wuhan Three Towns II drew 0-0 in League Two on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Chengdu.