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Wuhan Jiangcheng vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Wuhan Jiangcheng
Wuhan Jiangcheng
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
10/21/2023League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 8Hankou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wuhan Jiangcheng45%
×Draw27%
Quanzhou Yassin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.42
Quanzhou Yassin
1.09

Wuhan Jiangcheng creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 47 away

creates per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.05
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.42
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Wuhan Jiangcheng+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Jiangcheng ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wuhan Jiangcheng or draw
71%
Wuhan Jiangcheng or Quanzhou Yassin
73%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
55%

Winning margin

Wuhan Jiangcheng wins by 2+
21%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wuhan Jiangcheng 1+ goals
76%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 2+ goals
41%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 3+ goals
17%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
66%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
30%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Jiangcheng (draw refunded)
61%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Jiangcheng at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Jiangcheng attack 1.05 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.42

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Wuhan Jiangcheng defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wuhan Jiangcheng scores more
45%
level
27%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
29%

Wuhan Jiangcheng at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wuhan Jiangcheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Wuhan Jiangcheng 1–2 Quanzhou Yassin

Quanzhou Yassin beat Wuhan Jiangcheng 2-1 in League Two on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Hankou Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.