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Quanzhou Yassin vs Wuhan Jiangcheng — League Two 2022

Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wuhan Jiangcheng
Wuhan Jiangcheng
9/10/2023League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 4Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin29%
×Draw26%
Wuhan Jiangcheng45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quanzhou Yassin
1.14
Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.47

Wuhan Jiangcheng creates 29% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 18 away

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin
0.88
Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.56

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin
1.38
Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.39

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par
Wuhan Jiangcheng+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Wuhan Jiangcheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw
55%
Quanzhou Yassin or Wuhan Jiangcheng
74%
Draw or Wuhan Jiangcheng
71%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
12%
Wuhan Jiangcheng wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
68%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
32%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
11%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 1+ goals
77%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 2+ goals
43%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
40%
Wuhan Jiangcheng (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Wuhan Jiangcheng away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Wuhan Jiangcheng defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Wuhan Jiangcheng attack 1.56 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more
29%
level
26%
Wuhan Jiangcheng scores more
45%

Wuhan Jiangcheng at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wuhan Jiangcheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Quanzhou Yassin 0–2 Wuhan Jiangcheng

Wuhan Jiangcheng beat Quanzhou Yassin 2-0 in League Two on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Jinjiang.