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Wuhan Jiangcheng vs Qingdao Red Lions — League Two 2022

Wuhan Jiangcheng
Wuhan Jiangcheng
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
8/6/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Hankou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wuhan Jiangcheng32%
×Draw29%
Qingdao Red Lions39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.06
Qingdao Red Lions
1.19

Qingdao Red Lions creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.05
Qingdao Red Lions
0.96

allows per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.42
Qingdao Red Lions
1.07

finishing

Wuhan Jiangcheng+0.00on par
Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Jiangcheng ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wuhan Jiangcheng or draw
61%
Wuhan Jiangcheng or Qingdao Red Lions
71%
Draw or Qingdao Red Lions
68%

Winning margin

Wuhan Jiangcheng wins by 2+
13%
Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wuhan Jiangcheng 1+ goals
65%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 2+ goals
29%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 3+ goals
9%
Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
70%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
33%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Jiangcheng (draw refunded)
45%
Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Jiangcheng at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Jiangcheng attack 1.05 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.96 + Wuhan Jiangcheng defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wuhan Jiangcheng scores more
32%
level
29%
Qingdao Red Lions scores more
39%

Qingdao Red Lions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Qingdao Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Wuhan Jiangcheng 0–3 Qingdao Red Lions

Qingdao Red Lions beat Wuhan Jiangcheng 3-0 in League Two on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Hankou Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.