Qingdao Red Lions 1–0 Wuhan Jiangcheng

Qingdao Red Lions

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wuhan Jiangcheng

6/17/2023

League Two · Round 7Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Qingdao Red Lions36%

×Draw28%

Wuhan Jiangcheng36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao Red LionsExpected goals in this matchWuhan Jiangcheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

Qingdao Red Lions

1.21

Wuhan Jiangcheng

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

1.04

creates per match

1.56

0.85

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Qingdao Red Lions

1.04

Wuhan Jiangcheng

1.56

allows per match

Qingdao Red Lions

0.85

Wuhan Jiangcheng

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Wuhan Jiangcheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Red Lions ↓

Wuhan Jiangcheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Qingdao Red Lions or draw

64%

Qingdao Red Lions or Wuhan Jiangcheng

72%

Draw or Wuhan Jiangcheng

64%

Winning margin

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+

15%

Wuhan Jiangcheng wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals

70%

Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals

34%

Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals

12%

Wuhan Jiangcheng 1+ goals

70%

Wuhan Jiangcheng 2+ goals

34%

Wuhan Jiangcheng 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)

50%

Wuhan Jiangcheng (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Red Lions at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Wuhan Jiangcheng away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Red Lions attack 1.04 + Wuhan Jiangcheng defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Wuhan Jiangcheng attack 1.56 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Qingdao Red Lions scores more

36%

level

28%

Wuhan Jiangcheng scores more

36%

Qingdao Red Lions at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Qingdao Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff