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Wuhan Jiangcheng vs Nantong Haimen Codion — League Two 2022

Wuhan Jiangcheng
Wuhan Jiangcheng
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nantong Haimen Codion
Nantong Haimen Codion
7/20/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wuhan Jiangcheng31%
×Draw27%
Nantong Haimen Codion43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.13
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.39

Nantong Haimen Codion creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

creates per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.05
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.36

allows per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.42
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.20

finishing

Wuhan Jiangcheng+0.00on par
Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Jiangcheng ↓

Nantong Haimen Codion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wuhan Jiangcheng or draw
57%
Wuhan Jiangcheng or Nantong Haimen Codion
73%
Draw or Nantong Haimen Codion
69%

Winning margin

Wuhan Jiangcheng wins by 2+
12%
Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Wuhan Jiangcheng 1+ goals
68%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 2+ goals
31%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 3+ goals
11%
Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals
75%
Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals
40%
Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Jiangcheng (draw refunded)
42%
Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Jiangcheng at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Nantong Haimen Codion away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Jiangcheng attack 1.05 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.36 + Wuhan Jiangcheng defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wuhan Jiangcheng scores more
31%
level
27%
Nantong Haimen Codion scores more
43%

Nantong Haimen Codion at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nantong Haimen Codion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Wuhan Jiangcheng 1–1 Nantong Haimen Codion

Wuhan Jiangcheng and Nantong Haimen Codion drew 1-1 in League Two on July 20, 2022.

The match was played at Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 1 in Yancheng.