Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nantong Haimen Codion vs Wuhan Jiangcheng — League Two 2022

Nantong Haimen Codion
Nantong Haimen Codion
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wuhan Jiangcheng
Wuhan Jiangcheng
8/13/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nantong Haimen Codion43%
×Draw25%
Wuhan Jiangcheng32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantong Haimen Codion
1.56
Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.31

Nantong Haimen Codion creates 19% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nantong Haimen Codion
1.73
Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.56

allows per match

Nantong Haimen Codion
1.05
Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.39

finishing

Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par
Wuhan Jiangcheng+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Haimen Codion ↓

Wuhan Jiangcheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nantong Haimen Codion or draw
68%
Nantong Haimen Codion or Wuhan Jiangcheng
75%
Draw or Wuhan Jiangcheng
57%

Winning margin

Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+
22%
Wuhan Jiangcheng wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals
79%
Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals
46%
Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals
21%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 1+ goals
73%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 2+ goals
38%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)
57%
Wuhan Jiangcheng (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Haimen Codion at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Wuhan Jiangcheng away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.73 + Wuhan Jiangcheng defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.56

Wuhan Jiangcheng attack 1.56 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nantong Haimen Codion scores more
43%
level
25%
Wuhan Jiangcheng scores more
32%

Nantong Haimen Codion at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nantong Haimen Codion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Nantong Haimen Codion 3–0 Wuhan Jiangcheng

Nantong Haimen Codion beat Wuhan Jiangcheng 3-0 in League Two on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 3 in Yancheng.