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WSPG Wels vs Union Vöcklamarkt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

WSPG Wels
WSPG Wels
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Union Vöcklamarkt
Union Vöcklamarkt
3/15/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 18HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

WSPG Wels63%
×Draw19%
Union Vöcklamarkt17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSPG Wels
2.25
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.08

WSPG Wels creates 108% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 91 away

creates per match

WSPG Wels
2.37
Union Vöcklamarkt
1.26

allows per match

WSPG Wels
0.90
Union Vöcklamarkt
2.12

finishing

WSPG Wels+0.00on par
Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSPG Wels ↓

Union Vöcklamarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

WSPG Wels or draw
83%
WSPG Wels or Union Vöcklamarkt
81%
Draw or Union Vöcklamarkt
37%

Winning margin

WSPG Wels wins by 2+
41%
Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

WSPG Wels 1+ goals
89%
WSPG Wels 2+ goals
65%
WSPG Wels 3+ goals
39%
Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals
66%
Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals
29%
Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

WSPG Wels (draw refunded)
79%
Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSPG Wels at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Union Vöcklamarkt away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSPG Wels attack 2.37 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.25

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.26 + WSPG Wels defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

WSPG Wels scores more
63%
level
19%
Union Vöcklamarkt scores more
17%

WSPG Wels at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "WSPG Wels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: WSPG Wels 3–0 Union Vöcklamarkt

WSPG Wels beat Union Vöcklamarkt 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at HUBER Arena in Wels.