Union Vöcklamarkt 1–3 WSPG Wels: Result & Stats

Union Vöcklamarkt

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

WSPG Wels

10/25/2024

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 13BLACK CREVICE - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Vöcklamarkt37%

×Draw24%

WSPG Wels38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union VöcklamarktExpected goals in this matchWSPG Wels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.52

Union Vöcklamarkt

1.50

WSPG Wels

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 30 away

1.70

creates per match

1.73

1.30

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Union Vöcklamarkt

1.70

WSPG Wels

1.73

allows per match

Union Vöcklamarkt

1.30

WSPG Wels

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par

WSPG Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Vöcklamarkt ↓

WSPG Wels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Union Vöcklamarkt or draw

62%

Union Vöcklamarkt or WSPG Wels

76%

Draw or WSPG Wels

63%

Winning margin

Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+

18%

WSPG Wels wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals

78%

Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals

44%

Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals

19%

WSPG Wels 1+ goals

78%

WSPG Wels 2+ goals

45%

WSPG Wels 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)

49%

WSPG Wels (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Vöcklamarkt at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.30 · 91 matches

WSPG Wels away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.70 + WSPG Wels defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

WSPG Wels attack 1.73 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Union Vöcklamarkt scores more

37%

level

24%

WSPG Wels scores more

38%

WSPG Wels at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "WSPG Wels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff