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WSPG Wels vs Gurten — Friendlies Clubs 2026

WSPG Wels
WSPG Wels
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gurten
Gurten
2/6/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

WSPG Wels33%
×Draw24%
Gurten42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSPG Wels
1.39
Gurten
1.60

Gurten creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

WSPG Wels
1.44
Gurten
1.42

allows per match

WSPG Wels
1.78
Gurten
1.33

finishing

WSPG Wels+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSPG Wels ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

WSPG Wels or draw
58%
WSPG Wels or Gurten
76%
Draw or Gurten
67%

Winning margin

WSPG Wels wins by 2+
15%
Gurten wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

WSPG Wels 1+ goals
75%
WSPG Wels 2+ goals
40%
WSPG Wels 3+ goals
16%
Gurten 1+ goals
80%
Gurten 2+ goals
47%
Gurten 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

WSPG Wels (draw refunded)
44%
Gurten (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSPG Wels at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSPG Wels attack 1.44 + Gurten defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Gurten attack 1.42 + WSPG Wels defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

WSPG Wels scores more
33%
level
24%
Gurten scores more
42%

Gurten at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WSPG Wels vs Gurten

WSPG Wels beat Gurten 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 6, 2026.