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WSPG Wels vs Gurten — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

WSPG Wels
WSPG Wels
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gurten
Gurten
4/12/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 22HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

WSPG Wels50%
×Draw23%
Gurten27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSPG Wels
1.77
Gurten
1.24

WSPG Wels creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 106 away

creates per match

WSPG Wels
2.37
Gurten
1.58

allows per match

WSPG Wels
0.90
Gurten
1.18

finishing

WSPG Wels+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSPG Wels ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

WSPG Wels or draw
73%
WSPG Wels or Gurten
77%
Draw or Gurten
50%

Winning margin

WSPG Wels wins by 2+
27%
Gurten wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

WSPG Wels 1+ goals
83%
WSPG Wels 2+ goals
53%
WSPG Wels 3+ goals
26%
Gurten 1+ goals
71%
Gurten 2+ goals
35%
Gurten 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

WSPG Wels (draw refunded)
65%
Gurten (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSPG Wels at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSPG Wels attack 2.37 + Gurten defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.77

Gurten attack 1.58 + WSPG Wels defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

WSPG Wels scores more
50%
level
23%
Gurten scores more
27%

WSPG Wels at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "WSPG Wels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WSPG Wels vs Gurten

Gurten beat WSPG Wels 1-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at HUBER Arena in Wels.