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WSPG Wels vs ASK Klagenfurt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

WSPG Wels
WSPG Wels
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
8/4/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 2HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

WSPG Wels56%
×Draw21%
ASK Klagenfurt22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSPG Wels
2.04
ASK Klagenfurt
1.21

WSPG Wels creates 69% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

creates per match

WSPG Wels
2.37
ASK Klagenfurt
1.52

allows per match

WSPG Wels
0.90
ASK Klagenfurt
1.72

finishing

WSPG Wels+0.00on par
ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSPG Wels ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

WSPG Wels or draw
78%
WSPG Wels or ASK Klagenfurt
79%
Draw or ASK Klagenfurt
44%

Winning margin

WSPG Wels wins by 2+
34%
ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

WSPG Wels 1+ goals
87%
WSPG Wels 2+ goals
60%
WSPG Wels 3+ goals
33%
ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
70%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
34%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

WSPG Wels (draw refunded)
72%
ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSPG Wels at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSPG Wels attack 2.37 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.04

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.52 + WSPG Wels defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

WSPG Wels scores more
56%
level
21%
ASK Klagenfurt scores more
22%

WSPG Wels at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "WSPG Wels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: WSPG Wels 3–0 ASK Klagenfurt

WSPG Wels beat ASK Klagenfurt 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at HUBER Arena in Wels.