Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ASK Klagenfurt vs WSPG Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
WSPG Wels
WSPG Wels
3/9/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 17ASK-Sportanlage Fischl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

ASK Klagenfurt38%
×Draw23%
WSPG Wels39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASK Klagenfurt
1.63
WSPG Wels
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

creates per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.95
WSPG Wels
1.73

allows per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.57
WSPG Wels
1.30

finishing

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par
WSPG Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASK Klagenfurt ↓

WSPG Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

ASK Klagenfurt or draw
61%
ASK Klagenfurt or WSPG Wels
77%
Draw or WSPG Wels
62%

Winning margin

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
19%
WSPG Wels wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
80%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
48%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
22%
WSPG Wels 1+ goals
81%
WSPG Wels 2+ goals
49%
WSPG Wels 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
49%
WSPG Wels (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

WSPG Wels away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.95 + WSPG Wels defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.63

WSPG Wels attack 1.73 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ASK Klagenfurt scores more
38%
level
23%
WSPG Wels scores more
39%

WSPG Wels at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "WSPG Wels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASK Klagenfurt vs WSPG Wels

ASK Klagenfurt beat WSPG Wels 3-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at ASK-Sportanlage Fischl in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.