WSPG Wels 4–2 Allerheiligen: Result & Stats

WSPG Wels

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Allerheiligen

8/18/2023

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 4HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

WSPG Wels58%

×Draw21%

Allerheiligen21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WSPG WelsExpected goals in this matchAllerheiligen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.17

WSPG Wels

2.08

Allerheiligen

1.17

WSPG Wels creates 78% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

2.37

creates per match

1.44

0.90

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

WSPG Wels

2.37

Allerheiligen

1.44

allows per match

WSPG Wels

0.90

Allerheiligen

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WSPG Wels+0.00on par

Allerheiligen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSPG Wels ↓

Allerheiligen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

WSPG Wels or draw

79%

WSPG Wels or Allerheiligen

79%

Draw or Allerheiligen

42%

Winning margin

WSPG Wels wins by 2+

35%

Allerheiligen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

WSPG Wels 1+ goals

87%

WSPG Wels 2+ goals

61%

WSPG Wels 3+ goals

34%

Allerheiligen 1+ goals

69%

Allerheiligen 2+ goals

33%

Allerheiligen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

WSPG Wels (draw refunded)

73%

Allerheiligen (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSPG Wels at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Allerheiligen away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.79 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSPG Wels attack 2.37 + Allerheiligen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.08

Allerheiligen attack 1.44 + WSPG Wels defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

WSPG Wels scores more

58%

level

21%

Allerheiligen scores more

21%

WSPG Wels at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "WSPG Wels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff