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Allerheiligen vs WSPG Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Allerheiligen
Allerheiligen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
WSPG Wels
WSPG Wels
3/22/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 19Sportanlage Allerheiligen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Allerheiligen36%
×Draw23%
WSPG Wels41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Allerheiligen
1.56
WSPG Wels
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

Allerheiligen
1.81
WSPG Wels
1.73

allows per match

Allerheiligen
1.65
WSPG Wels
1.30

finishing

Allerheiligen+0.00on par
WSPG Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Allerheiligen ↓

WSPG Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Allerheiligen or draw
59%
Allerheiligen or WSPG Wels
77%
Draw or WSPG Wels
64%

Winning margin

Allerheiligen wins by 2+
17%
WSPG Wels wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Allerheiligen 1+ goals
79%
Allerheiligen 2+ goals
46%
Allerheiligen 3+ goals
21%
WSPG Wels 1+ goals
82%
WSPG Wels 2+ goals
50%
WSPG Wels 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Allerheiligen (draw refunded)
46%
WSPG Wels (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Allerheiligen at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.65 · 75 matches

WSPG Wels away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Allerheiligen attack 1.81 + WSPG Wels defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

WSPG Wels attack 1.73 + Allerheiligen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Allerheiligen scores more
36%
level
23%
WSPG Wels scores more
41%

WSPG Wels at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "WSPG Wels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Allerheiligen vs WSPG Wels

Allerheiligen and WSPG Wels drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Allerheiligen in Allerheiligen bei Wildon.