WSG Wattens 0–0 TSV Hartberg: Result & Stats

WSG Wattens

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TSV Hartberg

2/9/2025

Bundesliga · Round 17Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

WSG Wattens39%

×Draw24%

TSV Hartberg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WSG WattensExpected goals in this matchTSV Hartberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.49

WSG Wattens

1.53

TSV Hartberg

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 131 away

1.30

creates per match

1.40

1.58

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

WSG Wattens

1.30

TSV Hartberg

1.40

allows per match

WSG Wattens

1.58

TSV Hartberg

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WSG Wattens+0.00on par

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSG Wattens ↓

TSV Hartberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

WSG Wattens or draw

63%

WSG Wattens or TSV Hartberg

76%

Draw or TSV Hartberg

61%

Winning margin

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

19%

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

78%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

45%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

20%

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

77%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

44%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

51%

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSG Wattens at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.76 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSG Wattens attack 1.30 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.53

TSV Hartberg attack 1.40 + WSG Wattens defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

WSG Wattens scores more

39%

level

24%

TSV Hartberg scores more

37%

WSG Wattens at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff