TSV Hartberg 3–2 WSG Wattens: Result & Stats

TSV Hartberg

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

WSG Wattens

5/17/2025

Bundesliga · Relegation Round - 9PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

TSV Hartberg43%

×Draw24%

WSG Wattens33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV HartbergExpected goals in this matchWSG Wattens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.38

TSV Hartberg

1.62

WSG Wattens

1.38

TSV Hartberg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 113 away

1.30

creates per match

1.20

1.55

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

TSV Hartberg

1.30

WSG Wattens

1.20

allows per match

TSV Hartberg

1.55

WSG Wattens

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

WSG Wattens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw

67%

TSV Hartberg or WSG Wattens

76%

Draw or WSG Wattens

57%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

22%

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

80%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

48%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

22%

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

75%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

40%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

57%

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 131 matches

WSG Wattens away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.94 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.30 + WSG Wattens defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.62

WSG Wattens attack 1.20 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more

43%

level

24%

WSG Wattens scores more

33%

TSV Hartberg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff