WSG Wattens 0–3 Sturm Graz: Result & Stats

WSG Wattens

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sturm Graz

12/7/2024

Bundesliga · Round 16Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

WSG Wattens30%

×Draw25%

Sturm Graz45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WSG WattensExpected goals in this matchSturm Graz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.60

WSG Wattens

1.25

Sturm Graz

1.60

Sturm Graz creates 28% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 129 away

1.30

creates per match

1.61

1.58

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

WSG Wattens

1.30

Sturm Graz

1.61

allows per match

WSG Wattens

1.58

Sturm Graz

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSG Wattens ↓

Sturm Graz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

WSG Wattens or draw

55%

WSG Wattens or Sturm Graz

75%

Draw or Sturm Graz

70%

Winning margin

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

13%

Sturm Graz wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

71%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

36%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

13%

Sturm Graz 1+ goals

80%

Sturm Graz 2+ goals

47%

Sturm Graz 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

40%

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSG Wattens at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSG Wattens attack 1.30 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sturm Graz attack 1.61 + WSG Wattens defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

WSG Wattens scores more

30%

level

25%

Sturm Graz scores more

45%

Sturm Graz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff