Sturm Graz 4–2 WSG Wattens: Result & Stats

Sturm Graz

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

WSG Wattens

T. Chukwuani 90+5'

L. Grgić 76', 66'

O. Kiteishvili 44'

Q. Butler 38'

M. Diarra 34'

8/31/2024

Bundesliga · Round 5Merkur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Sturm Graz52%

×Draw23%

WSG Wattens25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sturm GrazExpected goals in this matchWSG Wattens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.20

Sturm Graz

1.82

WSG Wattens

1.20

Sturm Graz creates 52% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 113 away

1.70

creates per match

1.20

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Sturm Graz

1.70

WSG Wattens

1.20

allows per match

Sturm Graz

1.20

WSG Wattens

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par

WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

WSG Wattens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw

75%

Sturm Graz or WSG Wattens

77%

Draw or WSG Wattens

48%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+

29%

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals

84%

Sturm Graz 2+ goals

54%

Sturm Graz 3+ goals

27%

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

70%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

34%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)

67%

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 128 matches

WSG Wattens away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.94 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 1.70 + WSG Wattens defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.82

WSG Wattens attack 1.20 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sturm Graz scores more

52%

level

23%

WSG Wattens scores more

25%

Sturm Graz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

O. Kiteishvili

Sturm Graz · M

9.5

Match Events

34'

M. Diarra↳ Q. Butler

38'

Q. Butler↳ V. Müller

44'

O. Kiteishvili↳ J. Gazibegović

46'

G. Wüthrich← M. Johnston

46'

A. Camara← W. Bøving

63'

L. Grgić← L. Zvonarek

66'

L. Grgić↳ O. Kiteishvili

71'

F. Rieder← Q. Butler

76'

L. Grgić↳ M. Biereth

83'

S. Hierländer← T. Horvat

85'

Y. Vötter← C. Üstündag

85'

A. Ranacher← L. Czyborra

90'

T. Chukwuani← M. Biereth

90+5'

T. Chukwuani↳ S. Hierländer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SturmWSG

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots13

5Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots13

6On Target4

10Off Target5

1Blocked4

9Inside Box9

8Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

436Total Passes396

354Accurate Passes281

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Offsides1