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WSG Wattens vs FC BW Linz — Bundesliga 2018

WSG Wattens
WSG Wattens
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC BW Linz
FC BW Linz
10/25/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Round 11Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

WSG Wattens44%
×Draw26%
FC BW Linz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSG Wattens
1.48
FC BW Linz
1.20

WSG Wattens creates 23% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 48 away

creates per match

WSG Wattens
1.30
FC BW Linz
0.81

allows per match

WSG Wattens
1.58
FC BW Linz
1.67

finishing

WSG Wattens+0.00on par
FC BW Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSG Wattens ↓

FC BW Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

WSG Wattens or draw
69%
WSG Wattens or FC BW Linz
74%
Draw or FC BW Linz
56%

Winning margin

WSG Wattens wins by 2+
21%
FC BW Linz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

WSG Wattens 1+ goals
77%
WSG Wattens 2+ goals
43%
WSG Wattens 3+ goals
19%
FC BW Linz 1+ goals
70%
FC BW Linz 2+ goals
34%
FC BW Linz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)
59%
FC BW Linz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSG Wattens at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

FC BW Linz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSG Wattens attack 1.30 + FC BW Linz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC BW Linz attack 0.81 + WSG Wattens defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

WSG Wattens scores more
44%
level
26%
FC BW Linz scores more
31%

WSG Wattens at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: WSG Wattens 2–0 FC BW Linz

WSG Wattens beat FC BW Linz 2-0 in Bundesliga on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Innsbruck.