WSG Wattens 0–2 Austria Vienna: Result & Stats

WSG Wattens

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Austria Vienna

3/16/2025

Bundesliga · Round 22Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

WSG Wattens34%

×Draw25%

Austria Vienna40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WSG WattensExpected goals in this matchAustria Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.46

WSG Wattens

1.33

Austria Vienna

1.46

Austria Vienna creates 10% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 134 away

1.30

creates per match

1.34

1.58

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

WSG Wattens

1.30

Austria Vienna

1.34

allows per match

WSG Wattens

1.58

Austria Vienna

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSG Wattens ↓

Austria Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

WSG Wattens or draw

60%

WSG Wattens or Austria Vienna

75%

Draw or Austria Vienna

66%

Winning margin

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

15%

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

74%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

38%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

15%

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

77%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

43%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

46%

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSG Wattens at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Austria Vienna away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSG Wattens attack 1.30 + Austria Vienna defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Austria Vienna attack 1.34 + WSG Wattens defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

WSG Wattens scores more

34%

level

25%

Austria Vienna scores more

40%

Austria Vienna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff