Austria Vienna 3–0 WSG Wattens: Result & Stats

Austria Vienna

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

WSG Wattens

10/26/2024

Bundesliga · Round 11Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Austria Vienna50%

×Draw23%

WSG Wattens27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria ViennaExpected goals in this matchWSG Wattens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.23

Austria Vienna

1.76

WSG Wattens

1.23

Austria Vienna creates 43% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 113 away

1.58

creates per match

1.20

1.27

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Austria Vienna

1.58

WSG Wattens

1.20

allows per match

Austria Vienna

1.27

WSG Wattens

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

WSG Wattens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw

73%

Austria Vienna or WSG Wattens

77%

Draw or WSG Wattens

50%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

27%

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

83%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

52%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

26%

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

71%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

35%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

65%

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 133 matches

WSG Wattens away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.94 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 1.58 + WSG Wattens defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.76

WSG Wattens attack 1.20 + Austria Vienna defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Austria Vienna scores more

50%

level

23%

WSG Wattens scores more

27%

Austria Vienna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff