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Wroxham vs Concord Rangers — League #52 2026

Wroxham
Wroxham
FT
0 – 2
Concord Rangers
Concord Rangers
2/25/2025League #52League #52 · Isthmian North - 26Trafford Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wroxham38%
×Draw25%
Concord Rangers38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wroxham
1.48
Concord Rangers
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wroxham
1.29
Concord Rangers
1.67

allows per match

Wroxham
1.29
Concord Rangers
1.67

finishing

Wroxham+0.00on par
Concord Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wroxham ↓

Concord Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wroxham or draw
62%
Wroxham or Concord Rangers
75%
Draw or Concord Rangers
62%

Winning margin

Wroxham wins by 2+
18%
Concord Rangers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wroxham 1+ goals
77%
Wroxham 2+ goals
43%
Wroxham 3+ goals
19%
Concord Rangers 1+ goals
77%
Concord Rangers 2+ goals
43%
Concord Rangers 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wroxham (draw refunded)
50%
Concord Rangers (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wroxham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Concord Rangers away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wroxham attack 1.29 + Concord Rangers defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Concord Rangers attack 1.67 + Wroxham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wroxham scores more
38%
level
25%
Concord Rangers scores more
38%

Wroxham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wroxham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #52: Wroxham 0–2 Concord Rangers

Concord Rangers beat Wroxham 2-0 in League #52 on February 25, 2025.

The match was played at Trafford Park in Wroxham, Norfolk.