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Concord Rangers vs Wroxham — League #52 2026

Concord Rangers
Concord Rangers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wroxham
Wroxham
10/4/2025League #52League #52 · Isthmian North - 10The Aspect Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Concord Rangers43%
×Draw31%
Wroxham26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concord Rangers
1.11
Wroxham
0.80

Concord Rangers creates 39% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Concord Rangers
1.00
Wroxham
0.92

allows per match

Concord Rangers
0.67
Wroxham
1.23

finishing

Concord Rangers+0.00on par
Wroxham+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concord Rangers ↓

Wroxham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Concord Rangers or draw
74%
Concord Rangers or Wroxham
69%
Draw or Wroxham
57%

Winning margin

Concord Rangers wins by 2+
18%
Wroxham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Concord Rangers 1+ goals
67%
Concord Rangers 2+ goals
30%
Concord Rangers 3+ goals
10%
Wroxham 1+ goals
55%
Wroxham 2+ goals
19%
Wroxham 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Concord Rangers (draw refunded)
62%
Wroxham (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concord Rangers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Wroxham away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concord Rangers attack 1.00 + Wroxham defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Wroxham attack 0.92 + Concord Rangers defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Concord Rangers scores more
43%
level
31%
Wroxham scores more
26%

Concord Rangers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Concord Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concord Rangers vs Wroxham

Wroxham beat Concord Rangers 1-0 in League #52 on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at The Aspect Arena in Canvey Island, Essex.