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Wrexham vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Wrexham
Wrexham
Preview
18:45
West Brom
West Brom
10/13/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10Racecourse Ground
39%
West Brom
model favours
35%27%39%

West Brom score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Wrexham35%
×Draw27%
West Brom39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.24
West Brom
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.54
West Brom
1.37

allows per match

Wrexham
1.29
West Brom
0.93

finishing

Wrexham+0.06on par
West Brom-0.51scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
61%
Wrexham or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
65%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
15%
West Brom wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
71%
Wrexham 2+ goals
35%
Wrexham 3+ goals
13%
West Brom 1+ goals
74%
West Brom 2+ goals
38%
West Brom 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
47%
West Brom (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.29 · 5 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.54 + West Brom defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.24

West Brom attack 1.37 + Wrexham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wrexham scores more
35%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
39%

West Brom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wrexham sit 7, West Brom 19 in the table
  • Wrexham outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Wrexham
Balanced
West Brom
Attack-heavy
50%Possession55%
79%Pass accuracy82%
10.3ShotsBiggest gap13.5
1.15xG1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WrexhamWest Brom

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wrexham
DDLWW
Brom
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wrexham vs West Brom — Match Preview

Wrexham face West Brom on October 13, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wrexham host West Brom at Racecourse Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.