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West Brom vs Wrexham — Championship 2025

West Brom
West Brom
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Wrexham
Wrexham
J. Maja 38' (pen)
I. Price 26'
G. Dobson 62'
J. Windass 47'
4/3/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

West Brom51%
×Draw27%
Wrexham22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.44
Wrexham
0.86

West Brom creates 67% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.47
Wrexham
1.02

allows per match

West Brom
0.71
Wrexham
1.42

finishing

West Brom+0.11scores more
Wrexham+0.65scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
78%
West Brom or Wrexham
73%
Draw or Wrexham
49%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
25%
Wrexham wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
76%
West Brom 2+ goals
42%
West Brom 3+ goals
18%
Wrexham 1+ goals
58%
Wrexham 2+ goals
21%
Wrexham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
69%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.71 · 12 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.47 + Wrexham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Wrexham attack 1.02 + West Brom defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

West Brom scores more
51%
level
27%
Wrexham scores more
22%

West Brom at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
L. O'BrienWrexhamWrexham · F
7.9

Match Events

26'
I. Price
38'
Issa Kaboré
38'
J. MajaPenalty
47'
J. Windass↳ L. O'Brien
61'
Callum Styles
62'
G. Dobson↳ L. O'Brien
69'
N. Broadhead← Z. Vyner
69'
K. Moore← S. Smith
72'
C. Taylor← J. Jimoh-Aloba
72'
D. Dike← J. Maja
74'
George Campbell
82'
O. Rathbone← J. Windass

Possession

48%West

Shots

9West

Pass accuracy

50%West

Statistics

WestWrexham
Overview
48%Possession52%
9Total Shots13
1.61Expected Goals (xG)1.73
4Corners6
9Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots13
4On Target3
1Off Target8
4Blocked2
5Inside Box9
4Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
415Total Passes432
330Accurate Passes347
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
-0.27Goals Prevented-0.27
Discipline
9Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: West Brom vs Wrexham

West Brom and Wrexham drew 2-2 in Championship on April 3, 2026.

Goals: I. Price (26'), J. Maja (38' pen), J. Windass (47'), G. Dobson (62').

Wrexham controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.