Wrexham 2–3 West Brom: Result & Stats

Wrexham

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

West Brom

S. Smith 90'

L. O'Brien 42'

I. Price 81', 20'

J. Wallace 74'

8/16/2025

Championship · Round 2Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Wrexham34%

×Draw26%

West Brom40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WrexhamExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.40

Wrexham

1.25

West Brom

1.40

West Brom creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.54

creates per match

1.50

1.29

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Wrexham

1.54

West Brom

1.50

allows per match

Wrexham

1.29

West Brom

0.95

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Wrexham+0.06on par

West Brom-0.50scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw

60%

Wrexham or West Brom

74%

Draw or West Brom

66%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+

14%

West Brom wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals

71%

Wrexham 2+ goals

36%

Wrexham 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

75%

West Brom 2+ goals

41%

West Brom 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)

45%

West Brom (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.29 · 5 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.54 + West Brom defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

West Brom attack 1.50 + Wrexham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wrexham scores more

34%

level

26%

West Brom scores more

40%

West Brom at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

I. Price

West Brom · M

8.3

Match Events

20'

I. Price

27'

Lewis Brunt

30'

N. Broadhead← J. Windass

42'

L. O'Brien↳ J. McClean

70'

R. Longman← R. Barnett

73'

M. Johnston← K. Grant

74'

J. Wallace← T. Fellows

74'

J. Wallace↳ M. Johnston

79'

O. Diakite← A. Mowatt

80'

S. Smith← M. James

81'

I. Price↳ M. Johnston

87'

T. Collyer← I. Price

90+5'

Sam Smith

90'

S. Smith↳ R. Longman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WrexhamWest

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots17

2.01Expected Goals (xG)2.37

5Corners5

5Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots17

3On Target5

10Off Target8

2Blocked4

13Inside Box15

2Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

489Total Passes484

415Accurate Passes418

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.01Goals Prevented-0.01

Discipline

5Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1