Wrexham 2–2 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Wrexham

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Watford

O. Rathbone 90'

J. Windass 21'

O. Maamma 42'

M. Doumbia 30'

12/13/2025

Championship · Round 21Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham46%

×Draw24%

Watford30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WrexhamExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.33

Wrexham

1.69

Watford

1.33

Wrexham creates 27% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

1.78

creates per match

1.05

1.61

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Wrexham

1.78

Watford

1.05

allows per match

Wrexham

1.61

Watford

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw

70%

Wrexham or Watford

76%

Draw or Watford

54%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+

24%

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals

82%

Wrexham 2+ goals

50%

Wrexham 3+ goals

24%

Watford 1+ goals

74%

Watford 2+ goals

38%

Watford 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)

60%

Watford (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Watford away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Watford defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Watford attack 1.05 + Wrexham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wrexham scores more

46%

level

24%

Watford scores more

30%

Wrexham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Windass

Wrexham · F

7.9

Match Events

21'

J. Windass↳ M. James

30'

M. Doumbia↳ O. Maamma

38'

42'

45'

45'

58'

62'

62'

N. Broadhead← L. O'Brien

73'

G. Chakvetadze← O. Maamma

73'

V. Semedo← L. Kjerrumgaard

78'

R. Hardie← G. Dobson

78'

R. Barnett← J. McClean

81'

Giorgi Chakvetadze

82'

Mamadou Doumbia

83'

K. Keben← J. Abankwah

89'

M. Sissoko← E. Kayembe

90+10'

90+9'

90+3'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WrexhamWatford

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots12

1.20Expected Goals (xG)0.83

7Corners1

10Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots12

3On Target3

8Off Target3

5Blocked6

12Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

450Total Passes434

338Accurate Passes327

75%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-1.05Goals Prevented-1.05

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Yellow Cards6

5Offsides1