Watford 3–1 Wrexham: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Wrexham

E. Bove 90'

E. Kayembe 38'

M. Bola 18'

M. Cleworth 49'

3/17/2026

Championship · Round 36Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Watford39%

×Draw28%

Wrexham34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.15

Watford

1.26

Wrexham

1.15

Watford creates 10% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

1.30

creates per match

1.22

1.07

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Watford

1.30

Wrexham

1.22

allows per match

Watford

1.07

Wrexham

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

66%

Watford or Wrexham

72%

Draw or Wrexham

61%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

17%

Wrexham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

72%

Watford 2+ goals

36%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Wrexham 1+ goals

68%

Wrexham 2+ goals

32%

Wrexham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

54%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.30 + Wrexham defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Wrexham attack 1.22 + Watford defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Watford scores more

39%

level

28%

Wrexham scores more

34%

Watford at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Bola

Watford · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

M. Bola↳ G. Chakvetadze

38'

E. Kayembe↳ N. Irankunda

46'

J. Windass← N. Broadhead

49'

M. Cleworth↳ O. Rathbone

64'

D. Keillor-Dunn← O. Rathbone

64'

I. Kabore← R. Longman

71'

N. Mendy← P. Ekwah

72'

M. Doumbia← N. Irankunda

75'

B. Cadamarteri← S. Smith

81'

Giorgi Chakvetadze

83'

E. Bove← E. Kayembe

83'

F. Mendy← G. Chakvetadze

88'

J. Rodriguez← Z. Vyner

90+5'

Edoardo Bove

90+1'

K. Keben← J. Abankwah

90'

E. Bove

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordWrexham

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots8

1.97Expected Goals (xG)0.35

3Corners5

13Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots8

6On Target1

7Off Target3

0Blocked4

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

413Total Passes529

327Accurate Passes441

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

-0.96Goals Prevented-0.96

Discipline

13Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

Championship: Watford 3–1 Wrexham

Watford beat Wrexham 3-1 in Championship on March 17, 2026.

Goals: M. Bola (18'), E. Kayembe (38'), M. Cleworth (49'), E. Bove (90').

Wrexham controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Wrexham — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 3–1 Wrexham