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Wrexham vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
Preview
15:00
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
1/23/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Racecourse Ground
Big match
39%
Wrexham
model favours
39%26%34%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Wrexham39%
×Draw26%
Sheffield Utd34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.36
Sheffield Utd
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 41 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.54
Sheffield Utd
1.32

allows per match

Wrexham
1.19
Sheffield Utd
1.19

finishing

Wrexham+0.35scores more
Sheffield Utd+0.07on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
66%
Wrexham or Sheffield Utd
74%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
61%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
18%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
74%
Wrexham 2+ goals
39%
Wrexham 3+ goals
16%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
71%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
36%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
53%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 18 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.54 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sheffield Utd attack 1.32 + Wrexham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wrexham scores more
39%
level
26%
Sheffield Utd scores more
34%

Wrexham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 5.4 goals
  • Wrexham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Wrexham
Balanced
Sheffield Utd
Attack-heavy
48%Possession53%
78%Pass accuracy78%
11.1Shots13.4
1.20xGBiggest gap1.53
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WrexhamSheffield Utd

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Wrexham
1
Draws
2
Sheffield Utd
Avg goals: 5.4BTTS: 100%
2–15–32–41–33–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wrexham
WDDLW
Utd
WWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wrexham host Sheffield Utd

January 23, 2027: Wrexham take on Sheffield Utd in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wrexham host Sheffield Utd at Racecourse Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.