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Wrexham vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
5 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
J. Windass 81' (pen)
K. Moore 76', 28'
R. Longman 51'
T. Bindon 9' (OG)
C. O'Hare 24'
P. Bamford 15', 7'
12/26/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Wrexham39%
×Draw26%
Sheffield Utd35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.36
Sheffield Utd
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 39 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.54
Sheffield Utd
1.36

allows per match

Wrexham
1.19
Sheffield Utd
1.18

finishing

Wrexham+0.35scores more
Sheffield Utd+0.10scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
65%
Wrexham or Sheffield Utd
74%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
61%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
18%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
74%
Wrexham 2+ goals
39%
Wrexham 3+ goals
16%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
72%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
36%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
53%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 18 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.54 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sheffield Utd attack 1.36 + Wrexham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wrexham scores more
39%
level
26%
Sheffield Utd scores more
35%

Wrexham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45
P. BamfordSheffield UtdSheffield Utd · F
9.0

Match Events

7'
P. Bamford↳ F. Seriki
9'
T. BindonOwn goal
15'
P. Bamford↳ F. Seriki
24'
C. O'Hare
28'
K. Moore↳ G. Thomason
51'
R. Longman↳ G. Thomason
63'
H. Burrows← T. Chong
65'
Gustavo Hamer
67'
Ryan Longman
72'
D. Soumare← J. Riedewald
72'
T. Campbell← P. Bamford
76'
K. Moore↳ N. Broadhead
80'
Tyler Bindon
81'
J. WindassPenalty
82'
S. Smith← K. Moore
82'
D. Ings← S. McCallum
82'
A. Brooks← C. O'Hare
85'
O. Rathbone← N. Broadhead
90+1'
J. Rodriguez← J. Windass

Possession

54%Wrexham

Shots

18Wrexham

Pass accuracy

52%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamSheffield
Overview
54%Possession46%
18Total Shots13
2.29Expected Goals (xG)1.89
7Corners5
7Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots13
8On Target7
3Off Target5
7Blocked1
14Inside Box10
4Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
495Total Passes422
410Accurate Passes319
83%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
-3.06Goals Prevented-3.06
Discipline
7Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
5Offsides0

Championship: Wrexham 5–3 Sheffield Utd

Wrexham beat Sheffield Utd 5-3 in Championship on December 26, 2025.

Goals: P. Bamford (7', 15'), T. Bindon (9' o.g.), C. O'Hare (24'), K. Moore (28', 76'), R. Longman (51'), J. Windass (81' pen).

Wrexham controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Racecourse Ground in Wrexham.