Sheffield Utd 3–1 Wrexham: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wrexham

S. Berge 90+6'

B. Sharp 90+4'

A. Ahmedhodžić 50'

P. Mullin 59' (pen)

2/7/2023

League #45 · 4th Round ReplaysBramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sheffield Utd68%

×Draw17%

Wrexham14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.07

Sheffield Utd

2.52

Wrexham

1.07

Sheffield Utd creates 136% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

1.75

0.40

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.80

Wrexham

1.75

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

0.40

Wrexham

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

86%

Sheffield Utd or Wrexham

83%

Draw or Wrexham

32%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

46%

Wrexham wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

92%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

71%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

45%

Wrexham 1+ goals

66%

Wrexham 2+ goals

29%

Wrexham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

83%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.80 + Wrexham defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.52

Wrexham attack 1.75 + Sheffield Utd defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

68%

level

17%

Wrexham scores more

14%

Sheffield Utd at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Berge

Sheffield Utd · M

8.3

Match Events

45+2'

Ismaila Cheick Coulibaly

50'

A. Ahmedhodžić↳ B. Osborn

59'

P. MullinPenalty

60'

L. McAlinden← Jacob Mendy

60'

O. Palmer← S. Dalby

68'

O. Norwood← I. Coulibaly

74'

T. O'Connor← H. Lennon

75'

John Egan

78'

M. Lowe← A. Ahmedhodžić

82'

E. Lee← A. Cannon

82'

J. Bickerstaff← P. Mullin

90+3'

90+8'

90+4'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldWrexham

Overview

65%Possession35%

32Total Shots9

12Corners3

8Fouls6

Shots

32Total Shots9

9On Target3

12Off Target1

11Blocked5

21Inside Box3

11Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

480Total Passes260

409Accurate Passes176

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls6

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0