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Wrexham vs Reading — League One 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Reading
Reading
A. Cannon 49'
E. Lee 33'
O. Palmer 23'
8/24/2024League OneLeague One · Round 3STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham54%
×Draw24%
Reading22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.71
Reading
0.99

Wrexham creates 73% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 69 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Reading
1.32

allows per match

Wrexham
0.65
Reading
1.65

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
78%
Wrexham or Reading
76%
Draw or Reading
46%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
30%
Reading wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
82%
Wrexham 2+ goals
51%
Wrexham 3+ goals
24%
Reading 1+ goals
63%
Reading 2+ goals
26%
Reading 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
71%
Reading (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Reading away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Reading defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Reading attack 1.32 + Wrexham defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wrexham scores more
54%
level
24%
Reading scores more
22%

Wrexham at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
E. LeeWrexhamWrexham · M
8.5

Match Events

23'
O. Palmer↳ R. Barnett
28'
Sam Smith
33'
E. Lee
49'
A. Cannon↳ E. Lee
56'
Ben Elliott
67'
S. Fletcher← O. Palmer
74'
P. Mullin← J. Marriott
76'
T. Rushesha← C. Savage
76'
J. Wareham← S. Smith
76'
B. Tuma← A. Akande
77'
A. Garcia← J. Dorsett
81'
J. Jones← A. Cannon
81'
S. Revan← R. Barnett
83'
K. Abrefa← B. Elliott

Possession

33%Wrexham

Shots

12Wrexham

Pass accuracy

45%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamReading
Overview
33%Possession67%
12Total Shots14
2Corners3
16Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots14
7On Target1
4Off Target7
1Blocked6
8Inside Box9
4Outside Box5
Passing
33%Possession67%
259Total Passes542
184Accurate Passes474
71%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Reading

Wrexham beat Reading 3-0 in League One on August 24, 2024.

Goals: O. Palmer (23'), E. Lee (33'), A. Cannon (49').

Reading controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.