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Reading vs Wrexham — League One 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wrexham
Wrexham
L. Wing 55'
H. Knibbs 51' (pen)
3/11/2025League OneLeague One · Round 26Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Reading39%
×Draw28%
Wrexham33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.21
Wrexham
1.09

Reading creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 23 away

creates per match

Reading
1.58
Wrexham
1.13

allows per match

Reading
1.06
Wrexham
0.83

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Reading or draw
67%
Reading or Wrexham
72%
Draw or Wrexham
61%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
17%
Wrexham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
70%
Reading 2+ goals
34%
Reading 3+ goals
12%
Wrexham 1+ goals
66%
Wrexham 2+ goals
30%
Wrexham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
54%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.58 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.21

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reading scores more
39%
level
28%
Wrexham scores more
33%

Reading at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
H. KnibbsReadingReading · M
8.5

Match Events

48'
Michael Stickland
51'
H. KnibbsPenalty
55'
L. Wing↳ H. Knibbs
59'
E. Lee← S. Revan
68'
Joel Pereira
70'
S. Fletcher← J. Rodríguez
71'
R. Longman← J. McClean
75'
Michael Stickland
75'
Michael Stickland
78'
H. Dean← K. Ehibhatiomhan
83'
G. Evans← E. OConnell
83'
M. Faal← O. Rathbone
85'
A. Yiadom← J. Wareham
90+6'
Charlie Savage
90+1'
Mamadi Camará← C. Campbell

Possession

56%Reading

Shots

12Reading

Pass accuracy

52%Reading

Statistics

ReadingWrexham
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots15
2Corners3
5Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots15
4On Target3
5Off Target7
3Blocked5
6Inside Box12
6Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
463Total Passes342
368Accurate Passes252
79%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls17
4Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
4Offsides2

League One: Reading 2–0 Wrexham

Reading beat Wrexham 2-0 in League One on March 11, 2025.

Goals: H. Knibbs (51' pen), L. Wing (55').

Reading controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.