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Wrexham vs Preston — Championship 2025

Wrexham
Wrexham
Preview
14:00
Preston
Preston
10/17/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Racecourse Ground
45%
Wrexham
model favours
45%24%30%

Preston score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham45%
×Draw24%
Preston30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.65
Preston
1.31

Wrexham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 44 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Preston
1.00

allows per match

Wrexham
1.61
Preston
1.52

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
70%
Wrexham or Preston
76%
Draw or Preston
55%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
24%
Preston wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
81%
Wrexham 2+ goals
49%
Wrexham 3+ goals
23%
Preston 1+ goals
73%
Preston 2+ goals
38%
Preston 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
60%
Preston (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Preston defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Preston attack 1.00 + Wrexham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wrexham scores more
45%
level
24%
Preston scores more
30%

Wrexham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches
  • Preston win just 21% of their away games
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Wrexham
DDLWW
Preston
WLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wrexham host Preston

October 17, 2026: Wrexham take on Preston in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wrexham host Preston at Racecourse Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.