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Wrexham vs Preston — Championship 2025

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Preston
Preston
O. Rathbone 77'
N. Broadhead 39'
A. Devine 84'
12/29/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham45%
×Draw24%
Preston30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.65
Preston
1.31

Wrexham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 44 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Preston
1.00

allows per match

Wrexham
1.61
Preston
1.52

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
70%
Wrexham or Preston
76%
Draw or Preston
55%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
24%
Preston wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
81%
Wrexham 2+ goals
49%
Wrexham 3+ goals
23%
Preston 1+ goals
73%
Preston 2+ goals
38%
Preston 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
60%
Preston (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Preston defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Preston attack 1.00 + Wrexham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wrexham scores more
45%
level
24%
Preston scores more
30%

Wrexham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
A. DevinePrestonPreston · F
8.7

Match Events

39'
N. Broadhead↳ K. Moore
46'
S. Smith← K. Moore
59'
P. Valentin← B. Potts
64'
M. Smith← M. Frokjaer-Jensen
70'
G. Dobson← B. Sheaf
70'
O. Rathbone← J. Windass
77'
O. Rathbone↳ G. Dobson
78'
J. Lewis← H. Armstrong
78'
W. Keane← D. Jebbison
79'
A. McCann← L. Lindsay
84'
A. Devine↳ M. Smith
86'
J. Rodriguez← N. Broadhead

Possession

46%Wrexham

Shots

14Wrexham

Pass accuracy

49%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamPreston
Overview
46%Possession54%
14Total Shots13
2.53Expected Goals (xG)1.07
3Corners3
11Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots13
6On Target4
5Off Target8
3Blocked1
12Inside Box9
2Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
406Total Passes475
317Accurate Passes387
78%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
0.37Goals Prevented0.37
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Preston

Wrexham beat Preston 2-1 in Championship on December 29, 2025.

Goals: N. Broadhead (39'), O. Rathbone (77'), A. Devine (84').

Preston controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Racecourse Ground in Wrexham.