Preston 1–1 Wrexham: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wrexham

H. Armstrong 81'

K. Moore 4'

12/6/2025

Championship · Round 19Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Preston37%

×Draw28%

Wrexham35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.18

Preston

1.23

Wrexham

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 23 away

1.23

creates per match

1.22

1.14

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Preston

1.23

Wrexham

1.22

allows per match

Preston

1.14

Wrexham

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

65%

Preston or Wrexham

72%

Draw or Wrexham

63%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

16%

Wrexham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

71%

Preston 2+ goals

35%

Preston 3+ goals

13%

Wrexham 1+ goals

69%

Wrexham 2+ goals

33%

Wrexham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

52%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.14 · 43 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.23 + Wrexham defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Wrexham attack 1.22 + Preston defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Preston scores more

37%

level

28%

Wrexham scores more

35%

Preston at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Storey

Preston · D

8.5

Match Events

4'

K. Moore

49'

Alfie Devine

60'

D. Jebbison← P. Valentin

60'

O. Offiah← S. T. Thordarson

63'

Arthur Okonkwo

70'

H. Armstrong← L. Dobbin

75'

R. Longman← R. Barnett

78'

J. Windass← N. Broadhead

79'

M. James← B. Sheaf

81'

H. Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonWrexham

Overview

57%Possession43%

24Total Shots9

1.43Expected Goals (xG)1.40

16Corners2

8Fouls6

Shots

24Total Shots9

7On Target3

9Off Target5

8Blocked1

19Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

424Total Passes342

329Accurate Passes250

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

0.53Goals Prevented0.53

Discipline

8Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1