Wrexham 2–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Wrexham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Portsmouth

M. Cleworth 39'

S. Smith 23'

Z. Swanson 49'

2/24/2026

Championship · Round 34Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Wrexham48%

×Draw26%

Portsmouth25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WrexhamExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.99

Wrexham

1.48

Portsmouth

0.99

Wrexham creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

1.52

creates per match

0.86

1.13

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Wrexham

1.52

Portsmouth

0.86

allows per match

Wrexham

1.13

Portsmouth

1.45

+0.62scores more than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Wrexham+0.62scores more

Portsmouth+0.27scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw

75%

Wrexham or Portsmouth

74%

Draw or Portsmouth

52%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+

24%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals

77%

Wrexham 2+ goals

43%

Wrexham 3+ goals

19%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

63%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

26%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)

66%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.13 · 7 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.45 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.52 + Portsmouth defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Portsmouth attack 0.86 + Wrexham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wrexham scores more

48%

level

26%

Portsmouth scores more

25%

Wrexham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

M. Cleworth

Wrexham · D

7.7

Match Events

23'

S. Smith↳ C. Doyle

30'

Regan Poole

39'

M. Cleworth↳ G. Dobson

42'

A. Segecic← J. Swift

46'

H. Blair← G. Caballero

49'

Z. Swanson↳ R. Poole

67'

O. Rathbone← J. Windass

67'

K. Moore← S. Smith

79'

I. Bowat← Z. Swanson

79'

C. Chaplin← E. Adams

88'

Z. Vyner← N. Broadhead

89'

M. Dia← R. Poole

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WrexhamPortsmouth

Overview

40%Possession60%

10Total Shots9

0.54Expected Goals (xG)0.53

3Corners15

9Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots9

5On Target1

2Off Target2

3Blocked6

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box1

Passing

40%Possession60%

332Total Passes486

265Accurate Passes396

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

9Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1