Portsmouth 0–0 Wrexham: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wrexham

11/5/2025

Championship · Round 14Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Portsmouth49%

×Draw26%

Wrexham25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.99

Portsmouth

1.50

Wrexham

0.99

Portsmouth creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

1.55

creates per match

0.86

1.12

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.55

Wrexham

0.86

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.12

Wrexham

1.46

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.45scores less

Wrexham+0.39scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

75%

Portsmouth or Wrexham

74%

Draw or Wrexham

51%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

25%

Wrexham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

78%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

44%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

19%

Wrexham 1+ goals

63%

Wrexham 2+ goals

26%

Wrexham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

66%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.12 · 20 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.46 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.55 + Wrexham defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wrexham attack 0.86 + Portsmouth defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Portsmouth scores more

49%

level

26%

Wrexham scores more

25%

Portsmouth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Okonkwo

Wrexham · G

9.3

Match Events

11'

Andre Dozzell

27'

J. Williams← C. Ogilvie

41'

66'

69'

73'

73'

77'

Z. Swanson← T. Devlin

77'

G. Thomason← L. O'Brien

77'

N. Broadhead← J. Windass

86'

S. Smith← K. Moore

90+3'

Josh Murphy

90'

M. Pack← L. Le Roux

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthWrexham

Overview

47%Possession53%

19Total Shots8

1.49Expected Goals (xG)0.73

10Corners3

9Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots8

7On Target3

4Off Target3

8Blocked2

11Inside Box4

8Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

325Total Passes383

212Accurate Passes268

65%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

0.93Goals Prevented0.93

Discipline

9Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3