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Wrexham vs Peterborough — League One 2021

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
S. Fletcher 87'
1/4/2025League OneLeague One · Round 25STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham53%
×Draw24%
Peterborough23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.68
Peterborough
1.01

Wrexham creates 66% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 95 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Peterborough
1.38

allows per match

Wrexham
0.65
Peterborough
1.58

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
77%
Wrexham or Peterborough
76%
Draw or Peterborough
47%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
29%
Peterborough wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
81%
Wrexham 2+ goals
50%
Wrexham 3+ goals
24%
Peterborough 1+ goals
64%
Peterborough 2+ goals
27%
Peterborough 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
70%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Peterborough defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

Peterborough attack 1.38 + Wrexham defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wrexham scores more
53%
level
24%
Peterborough scores more
23%

Wrexham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
S. FletcherWrexhamWrexham · F
7.5

Match Events

36'
Emmanuel Fernandez
53'
Bradley Ihionvien
60'
S. Fletcher← O. Palmer
72'
J. McClean← J. Mendy
72'
M. Faal← P. Mullin
76'
M. Mothersille← B. Ihionvien
87'
S. Fletcher↳ O. Rathbone
88'
Steven Fletcher
90+1'
George Dobson
90'
G. Dobson← A. Cannon

Possession

48%Wrexham

Shots

17Wrexham

Pass accuracy

48%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamPeterborough
Overview
48%Possession52%
17Total Shots6
7Corners6
12Fouls7
Shots
17Total Shots6
4On Target1
9Off Target3
4Blocked2
11Inside Box6
6Outside Box0
Passing
48%Possession52%
363Total Passes381
270Accurate Passes302
74%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Peterborough

Wrexham beat Peterborough 1-0 in League One on January 4, 2025.

Goals: S. Fletcher (87').

Peterborough controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 17.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.