Peterborough 0–2 Wrexham: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Wrexham

M. Cleworth 39'

J. Marriott 28'

8/31/2024

League One · Round 4Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Peterborough42%

×Draw27%

Wrexham32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.15

Peterborough

1.36

Wrexham

1.15

Peterborough creates 18% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 23 away

1.90

creates per match

1.13

1.17

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Peterborough

1.90

Wrexham

1.13

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Wrexham

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

68%

Peterborough or Wrexham

73%

Draw or Wrexham

58%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

19%

Wrexham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

74%

Peterborough 2+ goals

39%

Peterborough 3+ goals

16%

Wrexham 1+ goals

68%

Wrexham 2+ goals

32%

Wrexham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

57%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.90 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.36

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peterborough scores more

42%

level

27%

Wrexham scores more

32%

Peterborough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

T. O'Connor

Wrexham · D

7.7

Match Events

28'

J. Marriott↳ G. Dobson

39'

M. Cleworth↳ T. O'Connor

45+1'

Ollie Palmer

46'

C. Conn-Clarke← J. Randall

47'

Jack Sparkes

62'

O. Rathbone← A. Cannon

67'

R. Jones← M. Mothersille

68'

C. Hayes← J. Sparkes

69'

P. Mullin← J. Marriott

70'

S. Fletcher← O. Palmer

80'

G. Nevett← S. Curtis

84'

S. Revan← R. Barnett

88'

Paul Mullin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughWrexham

Overview

70%Possession30%

6Total Shots11

2Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots11

0On Target3

6Off Target8

0Blocked0

3Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

70%Possession30%

634Total Passes268

562Accurate Passes182

89%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Wrexham

Wrexham beat Peterborough 2-0 in League One on August 31, 2024.

Goals: J. Marriott (28'), M. Cleworth (39').

Peterborough controlled possession (70%) and registered 6 shots to 11.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.

Peterborough vs Wrexham — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Wrexham