Wrexham 1–2 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Wrexham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Norwich

S. Smith 24'

J. Makama 59'

A. Slimane 9'

1/17/2026

Championship · Round 27Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Wrexham44%

×Draw26%

Norwich30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WrexhamExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.19

Wrexham

1.50

Norwich

1.19

Wrexham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 59 away

1.54

creates per match

1.20

1.19

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Wrexham

1.54

Norwich

1.20

allows per match

Wrexham

1.19

Norwich

1.45

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Wrexham+0.35scores more

Norwich+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw

70%

Wrexham or Norwich

74%

Draw or Norwich

56%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+

22%

Norwich wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals

78%

Wrexham 2+ goals

44%

Wrexham 3+ goals

19%

Norwich 1+ goals

70%

Norwich 2+ goals

33%

Norwich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)

60%

Norwich (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 18 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.45 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.54 + Norwich defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Norwich attack 1.20 + Wrexham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wrexham scores more

44%

level

26%

Norwich scores more

30%

Wrexham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Makama

Norwich · F

7.9

Match Events

9'

A. Slimane↳ A. Ahmed

24'

S. Smith↳ M. Cleworth

46'

T. Springett← M. Jurasek

46'

O. Schwartau← A. Ahmed

59'

J. Makama↳ K. McLean

65'

J. Stacey← B. Chrisene

69'

M. James← G. Dobson

69'

O. Rathbone← J. Windass

69'

K. Moore← S. Smith

70'

R. Barnett← I. Kabore

75'

P. A. Diallo← A. Slimane

79'

Pelle Mattsson

90'

J. Rodriguez← G. Thomason

90+3'

J. Wright← P. Mattsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WrexhamNorwich

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots7

0.85Expected Goals (xG)0.24

7Corners1

8Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots7

3On Target3

6Off Target3

8Blocked1

9Inside Box5

8Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

500Total Passes409

413Accurate Passes328

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.21Goals Prevented-0.21

Discipline

8Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2